Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AS 1138 · HNL → KOA

departs 3:14 PM HT · arrives 4:01 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1138 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?