Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1348 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AS 1348 · SEA → SAN

departs 4:45 PM PT · arrives 7:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1348 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?