Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1382 LANDED 1:21 AM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 1382 · SEA → GEG

took off 12:40 AM PT · landed 1:21 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1382 · SEA → GEG

Odds over time