Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AS 1431 · SAN → SEA

departs 6:35 PM PT · arrives 9:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1431 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?