AS 1457 · SFO → LAX

departs 4:51 PM PT · arrives 6:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1457 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?