AS 1472 · PDX → SNA

departs 7:42 PM PT · arrives 10:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at PDX that day

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1472 · PDX → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?