Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1520 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 1520 · FAI → PDX

departs 12:39 AM AKT · arrives 5:30 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 12am departures from FAI are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1520 · FAI → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?