Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 230 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 230 · EWR → SEA

departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 12:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at EWR that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.02 in

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 230 · EWR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?