Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2626 LANDED 11:09 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 2626 · AFW → JFK

took off 7:13 PM CT · landed 11:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AFW

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 7pm departures from AFW are usually not late

Weather at each end

AFW (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2626 · AFW → JFK

Odds over time