Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2629 LANDED 6:48 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 2629 · SBD → IAH

took off 2:11 PM PT · landed 6:48 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ 1pm departures from SBD are usually not late

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2629 · SBD → IAH

Odds over time