Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 285 · SEA → BZN

departs 11:29 AM PT · arrives 2:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 285 · SEA → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?