Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 432 LANDED 3:06 PM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 432 · SAN → SJC

took off 2:05 PM PT · landed 3:06 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 432 · SAN → SJC

Odds over time