Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 518 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 518 · SAN → TPA

departs 11:09 AM PT · arrives 6:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 518 · SAN → TPA

Odds over time