AS 552 · SEA → LAS

took off 4:08 PM PT · expected to land 5:58 PM PT (scheduled 3:35 PM PT → 6:03 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 552 · SEA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?