AS 557 · HNL → LAX

took off 4:32 PM HT · expected to land 12:25 AM PT (scheduled 3:23 PM HT → 11:46 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
85%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 557 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?