Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 560 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 560 · SFO → SNA

departs 10:37 AM PT · arrives 12:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 560 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?