AS 580 · SFO → SEA

departs 11:01 AM PT · arrives 1:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 580 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?