Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 647 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 647 · SEA → STL

departs 1:06 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 647 · SEA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?