Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 827 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:29 AM HT, ETA 3:38 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

took off 7:29 AM HT · expected to land 3:38 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 827 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time