AS 834 · HNL → SFO

departs 12:00 AM HT · arrives 8:07 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 834 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?