AS 9411 · SEA → GEG

departs 3:18 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9411 · SEA → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?