Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 953 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 953 · SJC → OGG

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:21 AM HT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ 7am departures from SJC are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 953 · SJC → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?