B6 2028 · MCO → EWR

departs 9:49 AM ET · arrives 12:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

EWR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 2028 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?