Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
B6 2786 · RDU → JFK
departs 10:58 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 30%
Thu 10/8 26%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at RDU that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
10am departures from RDU are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.11 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.