Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4249 LANDED 1:26 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4249 · IAH → XNA

took off 12:13 PM CT · landed 1:26 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4249 · IAH → XNA

Odds over time