Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4264 LANDED 11:36 AM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4264 · MYR → IAD

took off 10:39 AM ET · landed 11:36 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

MYR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

IAD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4264 · MYR → IAD

Odds over time