Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4315 LANDED 2:53 PM CT, ~12 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4315 · IAH → HSV

took off 1:28 PM CT · landed 2:53 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HSV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

HSV (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4315 · IAH → HSV

Odds over time