Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4335 LANDED 2:01 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

C5 4335 · IAD → BUF

took off 1:10 PM ET · landed 2:01 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4335 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time