Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4816 LANDED 4:39 PM CT, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4816 · AMA → IAH

took off 3:24 PM CT · landed 4:39 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from AMA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4816 · AMA → IAH

Odds over time