Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4819 LANDED 3:53 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4819 · GSO → IAD

took off 3:10 PM ET · landed 3:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at GSO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4819 · GSO → IAD

Odds over time