Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4849 LANDED 11:32 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Yesterday

C5 4849 · IAD → GSO

took off 10:46 PM ET · landed 11:32 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at GSO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4849 · IAD → GSO

Odds over time