Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4851 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:49 AM CT, ETA 1:25 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4851 · ECP → IAH

took off 11:49 AM CT · expected to land 1:25 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.4 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ Other factors

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

↓ 11am departures from ECP are usually not late

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip7.62 in

IAH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4851 · ECP → IAH

Odds over time