Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4861 LANDED 9:30 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

C5 4861 · IAD → ITH

took off 8:46 AM ET · landed 9:30 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

ITH (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4861 · IAD → ITH

Odds over time