C5 4945 · IAD → ITH

took off 5:52 PM ET · landed 6:40 PM ET (scheduled 5:35 PM ET → 6:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ITH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into ITH at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

ITH (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4945 · IAD → ITH

Odds over time

How late did it get to ITH?