Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
DL 1279 · RDU → TPA
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 8:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 3%
Thu 10/8 4%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at RDU that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.02 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.