DL 1438 · IAH → LGA

departs 6:39 PM CT · arrives 11:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9.5 mi Precip0.04 in

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,667 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1438 · IAH → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?