Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
DL 1438 · LAX → SJC
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.