DL 237 · AMS → TPA

departs 2:47 PM CEST · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

TPA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 237 · AMS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?