Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
DL 2806 · LGA → ORD
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 10:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 33%
Thu 10/8 24%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.