DL 2831 · SDF → ATL

departs 7:57 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2831 · SDF → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?