Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
DL 2851 · SEA → DEN
departs 7:59 PM PT · arrives 11:44 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Fri 10/9 22%
Sat 10/10 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.