DL 644 · MCO → LAX

took off 7:13 PM ET · expected to land 9:04 PM PT (scheduled 6:56 PM ET → 9:07 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 644 · MCO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?