Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1111
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 1111 · RDU → MCO
departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 4:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 9%
Thu 10/8 20%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.