F9 1229 · DEN → SFO

departs 9:08 AM MT · arrives 10:55 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1229 · DEN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?