Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 1234 · MCO → RDU
departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±7 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.