Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 1274 · MSY → PHL
departs 8:14 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.