F9 1476 · DFW → BWI

departs 7:48 AM CT · arrives 11:54 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 7am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling433 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1476 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?