Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 2635 · MCO → STL
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Mon 10/5
Thu 10/8 22%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.