Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 2953 · IAD → TPA
departs 12:28 PM ET · arrives 2:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 17%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.