Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
F9 2954 · TPA → IAD
departs 9:10 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 11%
Fri 10/9 13%
Sat 10/10 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.